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Boston Weather: 22.0°F | Overcast

Weather: Up in the Air?

By Greg Lawson
STAFF METEOROLOGIST

After a weekend of near record warmth, including a brief stint in the 90s on Sunday, we are entering a period of uncertainty with potentially unsettled, cooler skies. Basically, we have a nearly stationary high pressure system centered out over the Atlantic just off North Carolina to thank for streaming very warm, moist Gulf and Caribbean air up to us. This high is like a rock in a river in that it forces the normal flow around it. The opposing forces of the oncoming weather systems and the blocking high have formed a well defined front marking the boundary between warm and cool air. This front provides a dynamic surface on which storms and other disturbances can travel. Here in New England the front is oriented east/west and is nearly stationary. The front’s very small movements will completely determine the weather for the next several days. The problem is that it is very difficult to predict these small movements as the product of very large opposing forces. What is clear is that several disturbances upstream (i.e. to the west) will be approaching us soon and will be bearing rain. If the front happens to be over us, then there is a good chance for rain and cooler weather. But if it is just tens of kilometers to the west or north of us, we could continue to see 80ºF days. A display of this high sensitivity came yesterday with a 16ºF drop in only two hours as the front passed overhead. My thinking is that today will be fairly nice whereas Wednesday will be cool and damp. This whole situation should clear out by Thursday so we can return to typical spring weather.

Today: Partly cloudy. Warm. Chance of showers (most likely in the afternoon). Healthy westerly winds. High of 74ºF (23ºC).

Tonight: Overcast. Wind shifting to northerly. Low of 55ºF (13ºC).

Wednesday: Overcast and grey. Even chance of rain showers and even some thunderstorms. Northeasterly winds. High of 66ºF (19ºC). Low of 49ºF (9ºC).

Thursday: Partly cloudy. Warming back up. High in the low 70s (22-24ºC). Low in mid 50s (11-13ºC).