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Boston Weather: 46.0°F | Fair


By Roberto Rondanelli

A major issue in weather forecasting is perhaps to get people to use the forecast in a way that is consistent with what a weather prediction can really achieve. It might be evident to some that forecasts have a significant uncertainty and that the accuracy of the prediction deteriorates with time. People, on the other hand, want to make decisions in advance, having the most information they can. And of course if there is a need, there are people willing to provide a service. So, if you consult some of the most popular weather related Web pages, you will be able to find a forecast 10 days or even 15 days in advance. Extensive verification studies have been conducted on these single value forecasts and there seems to be a reasonable agreement that forecasts beyond seven days do not have any significant skill above climatology. That is, you are better off taking your decisions based on what is known to be the average climate of the region for that particular day. No disclaimer about this, however, can be found on any of these Web sites.

Regarding our weather, a rapidly moving high pressure located off the Atlantic coast is bringing relatively warm advection, so temperatures will continue to rise during the next three days. A rain band currently over Florida and Alabama might get elongated over the Atlantic coast and reach our region with precipitation starting tonight and extending into tomorrow afternoon.

Extended Forecast

Today: Partly Cloudy. High 59�F (15�C)

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and relatively warm. Chance of precipitation. Low 49�F (9�C).

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rainfall in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 58�F (14�C).

Thursday: Partly cloudy. Temperatures well above climatology. High 66�F (19�C).