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Boston Weather: 48.0°F | Overcast

Weather: Let’s Put This in Perspective

By David Flagg
STAFF METEOROLOGIST -- With the passage of Ivan, the contiguous U.S. has now sustained six tropical cyclone landfalls this season, including three hurricanes (Charley, Frances and Ivan) and three tropical storms (Bonnie, Gaston, Hermine). Statistics from the 20th century indicate about a 65 percent chance sustaining a major landfalling hurricane on the U.S. mainland in any given year (maximum sustained wind greater than 115mph (192kph)) (Jarrell et al. 2001). This year, there have been two such storms: Charley and Ivan. About 36 percent of all landfalling Atlantic hurricanes in the 20th century struck Florida (National Hurricane Center). This year, two of the three landfalling hurricanes, Charley and Frances, made landfall over Florida.

In spite of the catastrophic destruction incurred by many nations bordering the North Atlantic this year, the total number of named tropical cyclones to date (10) is only slightly ahead of last year’s pace (9) and matches the 2002 pace (10).

Extended Forecast:

Today: Showers likely by afternoon, humid. High around 79°F (26°C).

Tonight: Showers, still humid. Low near 62°F (17°C).

Tomorrow: A few showers likely in the morning, gradually drying out by afternoon. High around 67°F (19°C).

Tomorrow night: Variable cloudiness early, clearing late. Low around 55°F (13°C).

Sunday: Partly cloudy. High near 69°F (21°C).

Monday: Partly cloudy, seasonal. Low near 51°F (10°C), high near 70°F (21°C).