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Boston Weather: 51.0°F | Partly Cloudy

Weather: A Blustery Year for Florida

Roberto Rondonelli

News reports sometimes exaggerate present developments to make them more interesting to the audience, and one may wonder if this is really a particularly active Hurricane season.

From a study by Landsea et al. (Climate Change, 1999) the average number of tropical storms between the 1940’s and 1990’s forming in the Atlantic basin is 10. That means on average, you will get to the storm with a name starting with the letter J. We are currently watching the hurricane Ivan and therefore one more named storm will give us the average number of storms (most likely before the end of this week as tropical depression eleven becomes tropical storm Jeanne).

On the other hand, the average number of major hurricanes in the basin (Categories 3, 4 or 5) is about 2.5 per year. With Charley, Frances and Ivan we already completed the quote. Moreover, the forecast path indicates that Ivan (currently a category 5 storm) will make landfall as a major Hurricane most likely in the Florida panhandle or Alabama shores. The average number of major hurricanes making landfall in the US is about 0.8 per year. So the answer is yes, this is an active and notable season for the number of major Hurricanes making landfall in the US continental territory.

Extended Forecast:

Today: Clear and cooler. High 65°F (18°C)

Tonight: Clear. Low 55°F (13°C)

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy. Fog early in the morning then southerly winds warming up. High 72°F (22°C)

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, warmer and more humid. Chance of showers early in the morning and late in the evening. Low 61°F (16°C) High 78°F (26°C).