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Boston Weather: 33.0°F | Fair

Weather: By Bill Ramstrom

Staff Meteorologist -- The dilemma facing forecasters today is rather similar to the one faced earlier in the week: the various models predict dissimilar tracks for this upcoming storm.

The National Weather Service has three main models which are run at least twice a day to come up with weather forecasts. Each one has different representations of the physics that lead to weather, as well as different vertical and horizontal resolutions. They may also be initialized with similar but not identical observations. When all of the models produce consistent solutions, meteorologists can be fairly confident in the forecast.

However, when they diverge, it is far more difficult to know which, if any, is correct. For Monday and Tuesday’s storm, the actual system was weaker than forecast by the most aggressive of the models. In each case, the forecast was also made more difficult because the surface low did not form until just before the snow was to begin here in Boston.

As for today, I am expecting that a small storm will form in the vicinity of New York City, then pass over Southeastern Massachusetts and out to sea to our east. So, during the afternoon we should have a mix of rain and snow, with perhaps an inch or two of accumulation, and then a changeover during the evening to all snow, with another couple inches accumulation.

Fortunately, after this bout of winter weather, the stronger March sun will warm things up into the 50s by Sunday.

Weekend Outlook

Today: Wet snow and rain. 1-2” slushy accumulation. High 35°F (2°C).

Tonight: Colder, with snow in the evening. Up to 2” of additional snow. Low 30°F (-1°C).

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 40°F (4°C).

Sunday: Warmer and sunny. High 52°F (11°C).