Steady Blue (Clear View) and Democrats Too?
Can today’s weather affect the US election? According to an article in the June 2007 edition of the Journal of Politics, it can. In any election, rain and wind can impact voter turnout. Although there is likely a low correlation, there appears to be a signal in this study: rain benefits Republicans. Because democrats are more likely to live in urban areas, rain will impact Democratic “peripheral” voters more. The city folks are likely to have longer time outdoors, such as walking to polling stations, waiting for public transportation and in longer lines at urban polling places. As a result, these peripheral voters are presumably less inclined (or even less able) to go vote, and hence fewer democrats show up when it is raining. According to the study, for each inch of rain (above normal), the Republican presidential candidate received an extra 2.5 percent of the vote. So in a close election, rain can impact the election results.
How’s today’s weather for the swing states? According to the New York Times, the swings states are Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Indiana. No rain is expected for four of the five states. Only in North Carolina (including all of its major cities) will it be raining. In fact, that’s the only place in the eastern US affected by any precipitation. In our region, seasonably warm temperatures are expected for today and tomorrow. No reason for either Democrats or Republicans not to show up today to vote.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows upper 40°F (9°C)
Tomorrow: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s°F (20°C)
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy. Low in the lower 50s°F (11°C)
Thursday: Rain. Highs in the upper 50s°F (15°C)