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Valentine’s Day Storm

December, January, and the first half of February have passed without a major snowstorm. As a result of this remarkable calm, Boston has only received 1.8 inches of snowfall to date this season, which is over two feet short of the climatological norm. But the quiet streak will be broken Wednesday, as the Northeast Corridor braces for the first Nor’easter of 2007.

The system, currently centered in the Ohio Valley, will bring heavy snow to the states north of the Ohio and heavy rain south of the Ohio today as it moves eastward. Upon reaching the Atlantic, the storm will strengthen as it moves northeast toward Boston. Precipitation will commence tonight and remain moderate to heavy throughout the day Wednesday.

The exact nature of our precipitation depends on several factors, including the storm track and the local vertical temperature profile of the atmosphere. While the precipitation should begin as snow, models suggest that warmer air will intrude at elevations of 1-2 km during the peak of the storm, so a change to sleet or rain is likely for some time on Wednesday.

Extended Forecast

Today: Partly cloudy. High 28°F (-2°C).

Tonight: Snow, becoming heavier toward dawn. Low 24°F (-5°C).

Tomorrow: A mix of sleet and rain. High 36°F (2°C).

Tomorrow night: Snow ending. Low 18°F (-8°C).

Thursday: Windy and cold. High 22°F (-6°C).

Friday: Continued sunny and cold. High 25°F (-4°C).